Bullish USDJPY on week of April 17, 2011
I have unofficially launched my Quantised Trading Desk (QTD) expert system this weekend as the system is ready for live trading after almost a year in development. You can’t miss the announcement if you visit the new frontpage of this blog. So, I won’t talk about it anymore here. The purpose of this post is to discuss my forex trade. It’s been over 7 months since I’ve traded on the forex market. I have been working on QTD during all these months to improve my overall trading. Anyway, let’s dive right to it for my first trade back into forex.
I am bullish on the U.S. dollar this week. Why?
The Financial Times is letting on rumours that the US Fed is signalling an end to quantitative easing. Coincidentally, the U.S. dollar appears to be testing supports across all major currencies. Secondly the US equities market hasn’t been able to make higher highs even as the dollar is marking new lows. Still, I’m not one to call a bottom, nor am I hunting for one. This is merely a good risk-reward trade to gun for an obvious move.
In particular, USDJPY appears to be the best of the bunch as its been holding well over the past few months while the dollar crumbled. The fact that Europe and US are rumoured to be lighting up on the money printing whereas Japan’s money printing press is on full steam for the quake reconstruction (Yen bearish) is a decent excuse to place some chips on USDJPY.
You might have noticed, I haven’t specified my entry price, amount, or stop loss price as usual. This is because I am relying on the Quantised Trading Desk expert system to trade USDJPY for me. QTD will monitor the market for me and execute trade entries and exits as it sees fit to accumulate a long position in USDJPY. All the risk management and quant analysis are built into the system. So I don’t have a position yet because I’m waiting for QTD to do the grunt work.
USDJPY weekly chart
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- Bullish EURGBP as hedge and Bearish NZDUSD as diversification | Quantisan Systems - [...] For my dollar bull sentiment, I’m dividing between USDJPY long and NZDUSD short. QTD still hasn’t taken a position ...
On your QTD page you wrote:
“We do not dazzle you with false promise of easy money with back-test results because:
1.We trade the future, not the past.
2.Back-test results are easy to game.
3.Past results do not indicate future performance.”
To this I must respond:
1. The past is the best indicator of the future.
2. Back-test results are easy to game and so must be performed carefully.
3. Past results are the best indicator of future performance (in the absence of other information).
Just my 2 cents worth.
I agree with you. That’s why I do extensive backtesting on my own with careful statistical performance analytics. I just don’t publish it to woo anyone else.
I definitely need to show some statistics later on just so not everyone have to test from zero once I can figure out how to do it in an unbiased manner.
I merely don’t want people to read too much into data that I publish.