Bullish EURGBP as hedge and Bearish NZDUSD as diversification

I’ve had more time to study the market tonight and is running a second and a third instances of Quantised Trading Desk (QTD) to trade 3 currencies in total simultaneously. For my dollar bull sentiment, I’m dividing between USDJPY long and NZDUSD short. QTD still hasn’t taken a position in USDJPY in the past 24 hours. That’s a good thing as USDJPY is still drifting downward today even as the dollar is gaining some ground. My line in the sand is at 80.70 for USDJPY and above 0.8100 for NZDUSD.

EURGBP long is a hedge against my dollar longs. Again, I’m not making any trade at this point but merely setting up QTD to wait for the right moments to enter. A break below 0.8660 for EURGBP would challenge my bullish bias.

These three currencies should be my complete market bias for a while. I’m just going to let QTD do its thing and trade for me. Hopefully this will be the last you’ll hear from me about my market bias for a while.

NZDUSD, weekly

EURGBP, weekly

Short 0.015 CADJPY @ 81.78, Stop 82.00

Edit: I was stopped out overnight for a loss of 0.37%.

I am taking a dabble at shorting oil via CAD/JPY. Here are where things stand.

CAD/JPY

USD/CAD

Crude Oil

CAD/JPY is forming a wedge on the 4 hour chart. I am shorting it at resistance and in-line with the downtrend. A break below 81.50 would signal a confirmation for even lower prices.

Risk is about 0.4% of account with a CAD$15,000 position.

Closed USDCAD short @ 1.06525, breakeven

It seem that USDCAD isn’t about to die just yet. My USDCAD short got stopped out at breakeven this morning. In fact, the pair is still struggling around the descending resistance line as shown in Figure 1. It made a higher low so I won’t be surprised if it cracks higher.

USDCAD, 4-hour

The reason why I took this trade was that the opportunity seemed too good to pass on based on my analysis at the time. I always keep an eye on the market even when I’m not trading. Although the basic setup remains intact, the opportunity isn’t so fantastic that I couldn’t say no anymore.

Anyway, I shouldn’t be wasting time managing a minuscule trade. Back to staring at codes.

Short USDCAD @ 1.0654, Stop 1.077

This is my first real forex trade after a year minus one day of studying the market and paper trading.

Shorted USDCAD based on the following intermarket observations:

1. Yesterday’s equities sell-off held around S&P at 1050
2. Overnight Asian market seem orderly, not every market followed through, but most did
3. European markets down move were slow overnight until US open
4. But perhaps most importantly, EUR/USD made a higher low with an increasing COT

Basically, as much as the sell-off tries to scare off people, the markets don’t seem to be moving in unison. So it would seem this move (in equities, thus inverse USD) is still a bear trap in an intermediate term bull rally.

Plus this daily chart, Figure 1, for picking USDCAD specifically.

USDCAD daily chart

And this 4-hour chart for trade execution.

USDCAD 4-hour

Size of trade is 1000 unit. Risking about 0.05% of capital with a hard stop at 1.077. Anything above 1.070 would put me on alert though.

Coincidentally, I first got into the forex market by studying the loonie. Let’s see how this first trade performs.

Lucky exit for CAD/JPY long yesterday, downtrend resumes now?

I booked my profit on my CAD/JPY long last night mere pips away from the top. It was a lucky move, that’s all. Now it looks as though CAD/JPY will do one of the following: