EUR/USD +95 pips in 2 hours: An example of swing and day trade convergence

I had my best day-trading day this quarter on November 27.  I made 95 pips in two hours at the open with only two trades.  This post is a review of my trades that day for my future reference.  To save you and myself from reading, the two reasons for this good run are:

1. Convergence of intermediate term signals with day trading signals
2. Ignoring my bearish sentiment (Dubai news) and traded what I saw from the prices

Before moving on, let’s start by setting the stage with some background information to summarize what conditions were like that day.

Background

The news on November 25 after NY close of Dubai World delaying their debt repayments sent the dollar and yen soaring.  I made my first 400+ pips trade by being at the right place and time on this panic wave.  The U.S. market was closed that day but FTSE sold off more than 3% the day after the news.  So the expectation was for US to do a catch-up sell off when it opens again on Friday 27th.  Risk aversion (equities down, yen and dollar up) was the talk of the day.

Figure 1 below shows the charts of ES futures (e-mini S&P500).  Left is a 1-min. from midnight of 27th to that morning’s NYSE opening.  Right is an hourly showing the move overnight from 26th to 27th.

ES Futures (e-mini S&P 500)

Intermediate term signal

Figure 2 shows my intermediate term signal.  EURUSD has been printing an uptrend on the daily (not shown).  Figure 2 shows that EURUSD was testing the bottom of my channel so I should consider going long.  Notice that this is the same channel that called for the 1.5150 top on 25th.  At least it has proven itself useful once.

EURUSD, 3-hour

Short term signals

For the short term signal, we need to go back to Figure 1 for the ES charts.  ES tanked 40 points over the holiday with very low volume.  It made it all the way to 1067 just before 3am on 27th.  Then it lifted all the way to 1080 at 9am.  1080 is the line in the sand for the bulls and bears.  So retracing all the way to that level before opening is significant.

This pre-open strength in ES was the sign of oversold for me.  This is the short-term confirmation I needed.  I entered my first position to long EURUSD @ 9:09 am to test the water.

Then I watched both EURUSD and ES closely for the next half hour.  Once NYSE opened.  I noticed that the TICK was relatively mellow with readings around -250 to -500.  It’s unusually good for a -20 points open drop on S&P 500.  One would expect at least -800 readings for a strong negative sentiment.  So after watching EURUSD, ES, and TICK for about 10 minutes, I entered a second position on a weak retracement at 9:39 am.

The exits

For my exit, I took profit at 1.5180 because it’s the 50% Fibonacci level and it’s also the top of another of my channel (Figures 2 and 3).  After about 10 minutes of watching the 1M bars, EURUSD failed to clear that resistance, so I took profit on the second half to go flat in this pair just before 11 am because it’s an early-closing Friday (NYSE closing at 1pm).

The gains were +95 and +93 pips for +0.27% and +0.28% in my demo account total.  Not bad for holding for 2 hours.

Update: Thanks to Jeff on Twitter for the question. I updated Figure 3 with the Fib. levels and showed the top and bottom used to draw it.

EURUSD, 30 min.

Conclusion

In summary, I started with an intermediate term setup that aligns with the major trend.   I observed the reaction of the markets on an important news.  Identified an oversold condition from the short-term charts for a short-term positive divergence signal.  Scaled in a position.  Then added more with another confirmation.  I scaled out when the target was hit.

Recommendation

Once again, I could have been more aggressive on this trade.  As shown in Figure 3, 1.4920-4930 was a short-term resistance.  I could have added more to my position when that level broke, with a stop at 1.4900.

Related posts:

1. Paper trade: Long EUR/USD 50% @ 1.49212, stopped out @ 1.4875 (-46.2 pips)
2. AUDJPY Short 81.37/77.17: Anatomy of my first 400+ pips trade
3. Paper trade: Long USD/CHF @ 1.009, out 1.0245 (+155 pips)
4. Missed opportunity review: GBP/JPY spiked 500 pips in 24 hours
5. Paper trade: USD/CAD long 1.07426, stopped out 1.06999 (-42.7 pips)