Missed opportunity review: GBP/JPY spiked 500 pips in 24 hours

By Paul | Published: October 15, 2009

It looks as though my analysis for GBP/JPY making a reversal was correct.  However, my short term entry needed to be improved for me to profit on my intermediate term analysis.  In particular, I should have looked at a major short term resistance line instead of an arbitrary weak resisitance line as I did when I entered the long previously.  That didn’t go so well as I was stopped out soon afterward when GBP/JPY was consolidating.

In hindsight, if I’m to try for a reversal, at least wait for the price to break a strong short term resistance and then use the recent low as the stop.  The preferred resistance line for GBP/JPY in this missed trade can be seen in Fig. 1, which I drew many days ago and also can be seen in my previous entry (Figure 2 on that page, the higher of the 2 lines).  New Figure 2 attached below shows the bigger picture of GBP/JPY in a daily chart to see what could have perspired.  My target of 148 was spot on too!

GBP/JPY, 3-hour

GBP/JPY, 3-hour

GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY

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  1. EUR/USD +95 pips in 2 hours: An example of swing and day trade convergence
  2. Paper trade: stopped out of AUD/JPY 83.59/84.90 (-130 pips) and EUR/JPY 136.73/137.50 (-77 pips)
  3. Paper trade: Stopped out AUD/JPY longs @ 81.3 (+7 pips) and 81.29 (-28 pips)
  4. Paper trade: Stopped out GBP/JPY @ 141.70 (-116.10 pips)
  5. Paper trade: Short AUD/JPY @ 84.53, Stop 85.00
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