This post continue on the calculations from part 2 of this TFSA trading cost analysis series. Part 1 is an introduction outlining the rationale for this work. Let’s pick up where we left off. I was just about to figure out what is my expected profit using probability theory.
To do that, I use my historical performance data to calculate my probability of profitable trades. I’ve been calculating my trading statistics in my monthly reviews, so it’s just a matter of aggregating all the monthly data to a single number. After a few keystrokes, I find that my win/loss percentages are roughly 40%/60%.
My name is Paul and I am a full-time engineer, part-time trader. Back in 2000, I deposited my $5000 interest-free student loan with an online broker. Since then, my interest in trading has become an obsession.
My first food poisoning experience
My stomach felt awkward after dinner last night. Then around 2am, I felt like I wanted to vomit. Minutes afterward, my previous meal came gushing out. That was the most awful experience I’ve ever felt. Even worse than the time when I crashed into a ditch while going down a steep hill on my mountain bike… Click here to continue reading... (316 words)