Paper trade: Long EUR/USD 50% @ 1.49212, stopped out @ 1.4875 (-46.2 pips)

By Paul | Published: October 15, 2009

EUR/USD looked as though it was going to break through 1.50 when it broke 1.49 (Fig. 1).  I waited til it marked a short term top at 1.4920 (Fig. 2) and then placed a stop entry just above it at 1.4921.  EUR/USD traded above it for a few hours but failed to break 1.4970.  It has now retraced to a short term support.  If it continues to decline, the double divergent top will be all written over the wall (Fig. 1) and it’ll be a good short for the next few weeks.  Until it moves out of this trading range though, this is still an uncertain trade.

On another note, I have now had a string of 7 consecutive losses.   Good thing these are merely paper trades for experimentation.  Looking over the history and statistics, it’s apparent that many of these trades were taken to try for the top/bottom just after signs of reversal in the short term (except for this EUR/USD trade, which is with the trend).  Thus, from now on, if I’m to go against the intermediate trend (daily), limit my position size by reducing a 50% position size entry to a 33% entry, at most.  Furthermore, only enter when the instrument has marked a short term lower top and has broken the immediate support.

After paper trading for a month, my forex trending strategy is finally starting to take shape…

EUR/USD

EUR/USD

EUR/USD, 3-hour

EUR/USD, 3-hour

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