Paper trade: Stopped out of USDCAD short @ 1.0640 for -67 pips, re-entering @ 1.0680

By Paul | Published: February 4, 2010

Well this was awful. USDCAD continued on a rampage upward and I was caught on the wrong side of the fence.  Total loss for this was 0.12% of my account.  At least I was light in it.

In retrospect, I broke my own rule and didn’t enter at one of the 4 fundamental entry points.

However, after some bear rampage throughout the markets today (Bloomberg: Stocks Plunge on Concern Rising Debt, Job Losses Threaten Global Recovery), USDCAD is at the top of my channel as shown in Figure 1 below.  So while my previous entry was early.  USDCAD at this price is a good short.

I will take it slow this time by setting a limit order below current support on the 4-hour at 1.0680, with a stop at 1.0750.  And then adding a second chunk at 1.0640, my stopped out price.  As is customarily lately, I am only risking 0.1% of my account on the initial order.

On a weekly chart, 1.0750 to 1.0810 is obviously a strong resistance for the USDCAD.  It is a congestion zone in 2007 and 2008.  Then USDCAD spent the last quarter of 2009 trying to break this resistance to no avail.  But who knows, perhaps USDCAD has had enough and it will break this resistance decisively soon.

That’s why I’m only betting on this reversal with limited risk.  It’s just a matter of wait and see now.

USDCAD, 4-hour

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