Pre-market Analysis December 1, 2008
Last week’s rally in S&P still haven’t broken the big downtrend from Sept/Oct yet. In fact, we just tested the top of the trend and bounced back perfectly. If we break below 860/850 on the S&P 500 today, then I’ll be looking down for the day. Breaking above 895 would be a great sign. And staying around 890 would be good too, as it shows we’re at least able to hold on to the gain.
However, do note that after such a quick rally last week. It is entirely normal to retrace back to load the gun. I plan to hold on to my intermediate term longs today.
The Asian market are all red overnight, except the Chinese markets. Shanghai (+1.25%), Hang Seng (+1.59%), and Taiwan (+1.30%) managed to stay just above even. As the Chinese market is very important in the global recovery, things aren’t all bad in Asia last night. However, I would simply read this as a neutral sentiment as everything else were down as I said.
S&P 500 futures
The US Dollar Index is bouncing back up again. However, it is still within the downtrend we’re in. I wouldn’t worry too much until it breaks 87.50. If that happens, it would be another sign this rally is losing steam.
US Dollar Index
Gold is retracing after the speed climb last week. I would watch the fibonacci retracement level at 50% (780) and 62% (770) for important signs of retracement confirmation.
Gold
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