Short 0.015 CADJPY @ 81.78, Stop 82.00

Edit: I was stopped out overnight for a loss of 0.37%.

I am taking a dabble at shorting oil via CAD/JPY. Here are where things stand.

CAD/JPY

USD/CAD

Crude Oil

CAD/JPY is forming a wedge on the 4 hour chart. I am shorting it at resistance and in-line with the downtrend. A break below 81.50 would signal a confirmation for even lower prices.

Risk is about 0.4% of account with a CAD$15,000 position.

Closed USDCAD short @ 1.06525, breakeven

It seem that USDCAD isn’t about to die just yet. My USDCAD short got stopped out at breakeven this morning. In fact, the pair is still struggling around the descending resistance line as shown in Figure 1. It made a higher low so I won’t be surprised if it cracks higher.

USDCAD, 4-hour

The reason why I took this trade was that the opportunity seemed too good to pass on based on my analysis at the time. I always keep an eye on the market even when I’m not trading. Although the basic setup remains intact, the opportunity isn’t so fantastic that I couldn’t say no anymore.

Anyway, I shouldn’t be wasting time managing a minuscule trade. Back to staring at codes.

Short USDCAD @ 1.0654, Stop 1.077

This is my first real forex trade after a year minus one day of studying the market and paper trading.

Shorted USDCAD based on the following intermarket observations:

1. Yesterday’s equities sell-off held around S&P at 1050
2. Overnight Asian market seem orderly, not every market followed through, but most did
3. European markets down move were slow overnight until US open
4. But perhaps most importantly, EUR/USD made a higher low with an increasing COT

Basically, as much as the sell-off tries to scare off people, the markets don’t seem to be moving in unison. So it would seem this move (in equities, thus inverse USD) is still a bear trap in an intermediate term bull rally.

Plus this daily chart, Figure 1, for picking USDCAD specifically.

USDCAD daily chart

And this 4-hour chart for trade execution.

USDCAD 4-hour

Size of trade is 1000 unit. Risking about 0.05% of capital with a hard stop at 1.077. Anything above 1.070 would put me on alert though.

Coincidentally, I first got into the forex market by studying the loonie. Let’s see how this first trade performs.

Lucky exit for CAD/JPY long yesterday, downtrend resumes now?

I booked my profit on my CAD/JPY long last night mere pips away from the top. It was a lucky move, that’s all. Now it looks as though CAD/JPY will do one of the following:

Paper trade: Closed all CADJPY long @ 88.40 for +152 pips

CAD/JPY reached my target of 88.00 last Friday. It broke through 88.00 nicely and tested 88.50 on Tokyo open just now. I decided to book my profit in the demo account on this CAD/JPY long position entered at 86.88 and 87.87. See Figure 1 for the 3-hour chart with the entries and exits marked.

Main reason for my cold feet is that there’s a lot of resistance on CAD/JPY above 88.50, all the way to 90.70, from the daily chart (not shown). I couldn’t tell if CAD/JPY will continue pushing upward or retrace. So I’m booking my profit now to observe the price action from the sideline. This position has turned out +40 pips more than I expected, so I’m trying not to be too greedy in this volatile time.

The net profit on this paper trade amounts to +0.3% of my demo account. The yellow triangle in Figure 1 shows my exit. I risked 0.1% on the initial entry (first blue triangle). Then added 70% more to the position above a weak resistance level (second blue triangle) and moved the stop on the initial size to breakeven.

CAD/JPY, 3-hour