Paper trade: USD/CHF 50% long @ 1.02747, trailing stop 1.0236
I’ve switched back to using the daily chart as noted earlier today to save myself some hassle. This is the first entry using the daily chart since the switch. But I actually placed this order before going to bed and then it was executed last night while I was sleeping.
USD is taking a beating these days and USD/CHF is testing a double bottom. I entered this trade based on Figure 1 for the following 4 reasons:
- RSI is shaping up a positive divergence if we can hold this support.
- RSI is as oversold as December 2008.
- Entry price of 1.027 is at a previous congestion zone based on Figure 2.
- USD/CHF took a very fast dive in the past 3 days, which usually prelude a retracement up.
However, the trend remains obviously downward. That’s why I’m entering with only a 50% as there’s no confirmation just yet. Once there’s confirmation, such as the RSI making a U bottom, I plan to add the other 50% position.
Entry: 1.02747, previous congestion zone, see Fig. 2
Stop: 1.0236
Target: 1.045
Reward / Risk = 175.3 / 38.7 = 4.5 > 3
USD/CHF daily
USD/CHF 3-hour
Paper trade: USD/CHF short @ 1.0296, out @ 1.03013
My long USD/CHF got stopped out just minutes ago. The support at 1.0300 has broken. The intermediate and short term trends are both down. So I have entered a short trade for USD/CHF with 1/2 position to see how it goes.
I initially had set the stop at 1.0340 for this trade. But the support at 1.0270 looks hard to break on first try. So I readjusted my target and stop to aim for an exit at 1.0270. In fact, I’ve placed an order to reverse and go long at 1.027 with a full position.
Entry: 1.0296, just below round number.
Stop: 1.0340, trailing, set at the previous congestion zone.
Target: 1.0270, previous support level.
Reward / Risk = 26 / 19 = 1.4 < 3… this is horrible. So I just closed my trade at a slight loss at 1.03013 for -$1.56.
USD/CHF 1-minute
Paper trade: USD/CHF all stopped out @ 1.03099 and 1.0300
My last half of USD/CHF long just got stopped out @ 1.0300. As shown in Figure 1, USD/CHF is now in bearish territory. I’m going to wait and see if the support at 1.0300 can hold tonight.
Here are the statistics for my two trades (each 1/2 position counts as a trade):
Entry: 1.032, full position at 6000 units
Stopped out: 1.03099 and 1.0300
Net Pips: -10.10, -20
Net $: -$3.03, -$6.01
Time Held: 32 minutes, 83 hours
% Drawdown: -0.10%, -0.19%
% from Top: 0.30%, 0.61%
In hindsight, I should have paid more attention to the short term trend. The break of the recent trendline should have been a warning sign against going long. As I’m still trying to work out the details to this strategy, these paper trades have been tremendously helpful.
USD/CHF
USD/CHF 30-min
Paper trade: USD/CHF entry 1.0320, stop 1.0300
I figured I should write this sooner before the market moves more and skew my thoughts on this entry. After my earlier entry in USD/CHF were stopped out this morning, I tried to enter once, got stopped out; and then an even better setup appeared, so I entered again. See Figure 1. This is a really awesome setup for the following 5 reasons.
- Trend is on our side as it’s still pointing up.
- Identical setup to last week’s dive before the climb, same RSI, same candlestick
- Bounced right at 1.031, which is at a longer term Fibonacci fan line as shown in Fig. 1.
- Another support at round number 1.030, which is very near.
- Good reward/risk ratio, see below for calculation.
I entered 6000 units (2/3 position as usual) and placed the stop at 1.0300, just 20 pips away. USD/CHF climbed up to 1.0345 almost immediately after my entry. So I moved my first stop to 1.0310 (Fibonacci level) for half my position. That got taken out minutes later and it marked the bottom (for now) at 1.0309. I was a bit too hasten to move my stop up for this part. See Figure 2 for my orders.
One big caveat to this entry is my tight stop at 1.0300. It is simply too obvious of a stop price. I’d imagine the market would try to gun the stops there before a run-up. However, if 1.030 breaks, it would ruin the setup as described above. And if they’re able to break that level, who knows how far this can go further down. So I’m keeping my stop as is.
Anyway, I still have half of my initial position left. USD/CHF is trading around 1.034. I don’t think I’ll do anything to this position for now. I’m comfortable with just half position sitting in for the weekend.
Entry: 1.0320, Fib fan line support, see Fig 1.
Stop 1: 1.031, triggered already for a loss of 10 pips.
Stop 2: 1.030, round number support.
Target: 1.038 – 1.040, starting point of this quick dive.
Reward/Risk = 60 / 20 = 3, right on the line of my goal.
Although I am secretly eyeing the 1.045 level as a target, I’ll be cautious starting from 1.038. Probably by setting a trailing stop if we do touch that. As always, let’s wait and see how this goes.
USD/CHF
USD/CHF, 30-min and capture an hour later than Fig. 1
Paper trade: USD/CHF out at 1.03998 (+50 pips) and 1.03798 (+30 pips)
I’m all stopped out of my USD/CHF positions from a couple of days ago. I considered re-entering when we failed to break 1.037 a few minutes later. But the 1.04-1.043 range seemed heavy, so I postponed that idea.
About this trade, the maximum drawdown was terrific at a mere 0.12% (see stats below). I seem to do well with my entry. However, I’m leaving profits on the table once again. For my second exit, USD/CHF touched a high of 1.0451 but I was only able to get out at 1.03798. Granted, this portion is supposed to be loose to capture bigger moves, but that didn’t happen. So once again, I need to work on my exit.
Another thing here is that my USD/CHF target of 1.045 was spot on. I wanted to exit half my position at that level. But I couldn’t figure out how to do both target stop and stop loss at the same time after my entry order is sent. This problem has been resolved by asking customer support at Oanda.
I’m not entering any more new trade (aside from the NZD/USD stink bid which I placed this morning) because it’s Friday and I don’t see anymore obvious good setup across the board (a small board) for my 4h timeframe. Update: Nevermind, I was eyeing 1.0350 when I got stopped out as a entry point. USD/CHF just touched it as I’m writing this post. So I’m back in now with a tight trailing stop… (and it doesn’t seem to be holding after just a few minutes… and it’s stopped out for an additional loss of $4.86 on this tap.)
Entry: 1.03498, 6000 units
Stopped out 1: 1.03998, 3000 units
Stopped out 2: 1.03798, 3000 units
Net: $14.97 + $8.97
Time held: 14:51:00 and 37:10:00
Max. Drawdown %: -0.12% for both
Net from Max. Gain: 102.40% and 237.33%
USD/CHF
USD/CHF, 30-min
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