Weekly Market Review: May 29, 2009
It can’t be a coincidence that on the last trading day of the month, the market made a 10+ points run (S&P 500) in the last 5 minutes to close at just below 920 and back to where we were 3 weeks ago.
Note in Figure 2 that we’re still below the recent uptrend. The recent market action is playing nicely according to the resistances and supports marked on Figure 2 so far.
I made 3 attempts to short GE this week but none reached my target with an overall breakeven outcome in total.
For next week, let’s see if the market can continue with this upward momentum established today and break back above the rising resistance at 920 (about 925-930 next week). If not, then I’ll remain bearish and continue trying to re-enter a short position.
On another note, I’ve adopted a less vigorous schedule working on MatLab for now to study for a test late in the year relating to my real profession. This is a decision based solely on opportunity cost. Even though I was making good progress with my MatLab development…
S&P 500 ETF
S&P 500 ETF
GICS Sectors Review
Ticker |
Last |
RSI7d |
RSI7w |
RSI7m |
Zone (estimate) |
|
XLE *
|
50.73 | 62.66 | 64.6 | 44.29 | |
|
XLB *
|
26.38 | 51.13 | 62.94 | 45.34 | |
|
XLI *
|
21.96 | 47.68 | 57.5 | 37.54 | |
|
XLY *
|
22.74 | 47.42 | 59.99 | 46.13 | |
|
XLP *
|
22.87 | 53.81 | 66.11 | 43.95 | |
|
XLV *
|
25.39 | 54.67 | 58.72 | 40.77 | |
|
XLF *
|
12.01 | 55.05 | 63.35 | 38.5 | |
|
XLK *
|
17.46 | 60.84 | 64.13 | 46.86 | |
|
IYZ *
|
17.74 | 53.01 | 61.01 | 45 | |
|
XLU *
|
26.58 | 56.25 | 54.44 | 33.57 |
6 months: XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP XLV XLF XLK IYZ XLU
1 month: XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP XLV XLF XLK IYZ XLU
5 days: XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP XLV XLF XLK IYZ XLU
Weekly Market Review: May 22, 2009
The market action this week has established an obvious trading range of 885 to 930 in the S&P 500. By the end of the week, we’re testing the lower end of this range on low volume (Figure 1). It would seem that we’ll be going up from here based on the indicators.
However, on the longer term trendlines chart of Figure 2, you can see that we have broken the upward momentum from April 1st and the one in March too (a couple of weeks ago for the March line). We closed the week on a long term support at 887 going all the way back to 2002 as I opined last week. So with so little volume (week before long weekend in U.S.), it’s no wonder we weren’t able to break this support yet.
Consequently, although I’m still bearish, my stop remains tight.
On a sidenote, my GE short position initiated this week has been great. It is a tiny position, but I am following my trading rules religiously and using my new method with good result so far. This test run is giving me confidence about this new stringent trading strategy I’m working on.
S&P 500 ETF
S&P 500 ETF
GICS Sectors Review
| Ticker |
Last |
RSI7d |
RSI7w |
RSI7m |
Zone (estimate) |
|
XLE *
|
48.59 | 46.42 | 60.74 | 39.39 | |
|
XLB *
|
26.40 | 52.66 | 72.32 | 43.95 | |
|
XLI *
|
21.77 | 41.93 | 60.23 | 33.45 | |
|
XLY *
|
22.34 | 39.55 | 59.84 | 43.58 | |
|
XLP *
|
22.79 | 57.15 | 65.26 | 40.46 | |
|
XLV *
|
25.26 | 51.78 | 56.62 | 35.96 | |
|
XLF *
|
11.74 | 49.79 | 65.53 | 37 | |
|
XLK *
|
16.88 | 42.37 | 62.44 | 41.14 | |
|
IYZ *
|
17.29 | 36.83 | 58.23 | 39.76 | |
|
XLU *
|
25.62 | 33.26 | 43.73 | 22.49 |
1 month: XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP XLV XLF XLK IYZ XLU
5 days: XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP XLV XLF XLK IYZ XLU
Weekly Market Review: May 17, 2009
We finally have a week of lower highs and lower lows this week. This week’s move is putting a pause on our multi-week rally since March. However, we closed at the long term support at 883 from the December 2002 crash zone. And as you can see from Figure 2, things are getting pretty congested around this 880 zone. Nevertheless, I’ve initiated a short in GE with a tight stop to catch this ride. I would need to see a more prominent lower high and lower low established before being more aggressive on the shorts.
S&P 500 ETF
S&P 500 ETF
GICS Sectors Review
I’ve taken this chart directly from the Cara Community RSI tool. I find that my graphical charts are not efficient as a summary tool. Hopefully this numerical chart can do complement my charts well. I’ll need to work out a more efficient sectors review system in the future.
| Ticker |
Last |
RSI7d |
RSI7w |
RSI7m |
Zone (estimate) |
|
XLE *
|
48.00 | 44.9 | 54.08 | 37.68 | |
|
XLB *
|
25.83 | 48.95 | 64.88 | 41.39 | |
|
XLI *
|
21.80 | 44.01 | 55.71 | 35.73 | |
|
XLY *
|
22.13 | 32.43 | 54.81 | 42.96 | |
|
XLP *
|
22.37 | 49.17 | 55.9 | 35.7 | |
|
XLV *
|
25.33 | 60.54 | 56.61 | 36.85 | |
|
XLF *
|
11.53 | 48.37 | 56.91 | 33.41 | |
|
XLK *
|
16.80 | 39.51 | 57.75 | 41.83 | |
|
IYZ *
|
17.52 | 43.85 | 58.84 | 41.99 | |
|
XLU *
|
25.94 | 33.99 | 46.27 | 29.79 |
6 months: XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP XLV XLF XLK IYZ XLU
1 month: XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP XLV XLF XLK IYZ XLU
5 days: XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP XLV XLF XLK IYZ XLU
Weekly Market Review: May 10, 2009
I am speechless about this rally. It just keeps going and going and going…
Right now, I’m just going to wait this out until a break of the trend (at least below 900 on S&P 500, Figure 2) with good volume.
From the channel of Figure 2, S&P 500 at 920 – 950 seem like a likely trading range for early next week.
As a side note, the May options max pain for SPY is pegged at $86. Are we going to retrace to that level by this Friday?
S&P 500 ETF
S&P 500 ETF
GICS Sectors Review
After taking a breather last week, the Financial sector is back to fueling this week’s rally. Apparently, all is well and dandy for the financial system (note the sarcasm) according to the FED, see WSJ: Banks Won Concessions on Tests.
6 months: XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP XLV XLF XLK IYZ XLU
1 month: XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP XLV XLF XLK IYZ XLU
5 days: XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP XLV XLF XLK IYZ XLU
Weekly Market Review: May 3, 2009
Volume continues to be low this week. The negative divergence as shown in Figure 1 (right) is staring everyone in the face now. However, we’re still within an uptrend channel (Figure 2). And if we were to break up from here on good volume, we’d be forming an inverse head and shoulder. Thus, it’s anyone game within this trading range around 840 – 880.
S&P 500 ETF
S&P 500 ETF
SMB Capital has a good review of the week.
GICS Sectors Review
From the 6-months chart, we see that Technology (XLK), Telecom (IYZ), and Consumer Discretionary (XLY) are back to their previous level 6 months ago. The resistance is clear as the sectors are now jammed together around that 0% level on the 6-months chart.
From the 1-month chart, we see that the bottom 3 sectors (XLE, IYZ, XLU) ran up in the last week to overtake Healthcare (XLV).
For the 5-day chart, we see an interesting picture. The recent bear rally leader, Financials (XLF), has ended the week at the bottom of the pack and looked weak for the entire week actually. Energy (XLE) looked strong all week and the Telecom (IYZ) made a friday run up to catch up to it too.
Comparing this to last week’s market review, this is clearly a money flow rotation between sectors in progress as the previous leader became the bottom fish and the mediocre ones became the leader. This is a sign that we may be breaking out of our trading range soon as the big money are prepping their front row seats.
6 months: XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP XLV XLF XLK IYZ XLU
1 month: XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP XLV XLF XLK IYZ XLU
5 days: XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP XLV XLF XLK IYZ XLU
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