Weekly Market Review: June 12, 2009
The market continues to be at a stalemate this week. The trading range of 925-950 identified last week remains intact. However, the 40 day MA finally touched the 200 day MA today (Figure 1). We should see the 50 day MA following suit next week. With the price being so tightly squeezed now, there really isn’t much room left to this prolonged sideway action.
Coincidentally, the lack of market action coincide with my reduction in time spent with the market. I’ve been busy at work.
On another note, Atilla at xTrends posted a few education pieces regarding intermarket relations, xTrends, and fundamental analysis (to be posted).
S&P 500 ETF
S&P 500 ETF
GICS Sectors Review
The chart below is taken from CaraCommunity’s RSIApp. Technology (XLK) remains high from last week. Consumer Staples (XLP) has backed down but Energy (XLE) and Materials (XLB) are in the overbought zone.
Ticker |
Last |
RSI7d |
RSI7w |
RSI7m |
Zone (estimate) |
|
XLE *
|
54.03 | 70.54 | 72.34 | 49.38 | |
|
XLB *
|
28.31 | 65.34 | 70.52 | 50.41 | |
|
XLI *
|
23.55 | 60.3 | 66.54 | 43.89 | |
|
XLY *
|
23.89 | 52.17 | 65.38 | 49.36 | |
|
XLP *
|
23.34 | 49.7 | 65.76 | 47.68 | |
|
XLV *
|
25.54 | 49.32 | 59.02 | 41.63 | |
|
XLF *
|
12.41 | 57.63 | 65.93 | 39.54 | |
|
XLK *
|
18.43 | 72.91 | 72.47 | 52.56 | |
|
IYZ *
|
18.40 | 68.43 | 67.9 | 47.26 | |
|
XLU *
|
27.83 | 69.79 | 66.25 | 42.55 |
Weekly Market Review: June 5, 2009
We started June with a sizable gap up on Monday. For the rest of the week, not much have happened as we nearly closed the gap on Wednesday and made a double top this morning (Figure 1). Nevertheless, we have maintained an elevated level above 940 on the S&P500 throughout the week. Interestingly, we closed the week right at 940 today.
From Figure 2, it’s clear that we’re back on the upward channel established in April. Apart from last week’s consolidation, the price has been following the channel well. It is obvious to everyone now that we’re in a bull phase. So, can we finally break this rally and move down? I gave up trying to guess anymore. That’s why my only new position this week is an options strangle for XLF. Just trying to profit from both sides of the game.
The top and bottom of this week’s range provide a good indicator for next week’s resistance and support, respectively. Thus, the notable levels are 925 and 950 for the S&P500.
S&P500 ETF
S&P500 ETF
GICS Sectors Review
The chart below is taken from CaraCommunity’s RSIApp. Compared to last week, we’re finally starting to see some sectors (XLP, XLK) creeping into an overbought territory.
| Ticker |
Last |
RSI7d |
RSI7w |
RSI7m |
Zone (estimate) |
|
XLE *
|
52.54 | 61.37 | 69.05 | 46.71 | |
|
XLB *
|
27.94 | 61.64 | 69.28 | 49.21 | |
|
XLI *
|
23.53 | 64.71 | 66.44 | 44.24 | |
|
XLY *
|
24.16 | 64.39 | 68.37 | 49.38 | |
|
XLP *
|
23.74 | 69.23 | 75.62 | 49.49 | |
|
XLV *
|
25.74 | 53.61 | 62.94 | 43.96 | |
|
XLF *
|
12.43 | 61.17 | 66.38 | 41.72 | |
|
XLK *
|
18.16 | 69.64 | 70.3 | 49.73 | |
|
IYZ *
|
18.01 | 56.67 | 63.95 | 44.76 | |
|
XLU *
|
27.09 | 57.47 | 59.64 | 37.09 |
Weekly Market Review: May 29, 2009
It can’t be a coincidence that on the last trading day of the month, the market made a 10+ points run (S&P 500) in the last 5 minutes to close at just below 920 and back to where we were 3 weeks ago.
Note in Figure 2 that we’re still below the recent uptrend. The recent market action is playing nicely according to the resistances and supports marked on Figure 2 so far.
I made 3 attempts to short GE this week but none reached my target with an overall breakeven outcome in total.
For next week, let’s see if the market can continue with this upward momentum established today and break back above the rising resistance at 920 (about 925-930 next week). If not, then I’ll remain bearish and continue trying to re-enter a short position.
On another note, I’ve adopted a less vigorous schedule working on MatLab for now to study for a test late in the year relating to my real profession. This is a decision based solely on opportunity cost. Even though I was making good progress with my MatLab development…
S&P 500 ETF
S&P 500 ETF
GICS Sectors Review
| Ticker |
Last |
RSI7d |
RSI7w |
RSI7m |
Zone (estimate) |
|
XLE *
|
50.73 | 62.66 | 64.6 | 44.29 | |
|
XLB *
|
26.38 | 51.13 | 62.94 | 45.34 | |
|
XLI *
|
21.96 | 47.68 | 57.5 | 37.54 | |
|
XLY *
|
22.74 | 47.42 | 59.99 | 46.13 | |
|
XLP *
|
22.87 | 53.81 | 66.11 | 43.95 | |
|
XLV *
|
25.39 | 54.67 | 58.72 | 40.77 | |
|
XLF *
|
12.01 | 55.05 | 63.35 | 38.5 | |
|
XLK *
|
17.46 | 60.84 | 64.13 | 46.86 | |
|
IYZ *
|
17.74 | 53.01 | 61.01 | 45 | |
|
XLU *
|
26.58 | 56.25 | 54.44 | 33.57 |
6 months: XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP XLV XLF XLK IYZ XLU
1 month: XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP XLV XLF XLK IYZ XLU
5 days: XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP XLV XLF XLK IYZ XLU
Weekly Market Review: May 22, 2009
The market action this week has established an obvious trading range of 885 to 930 in the S&P 500. By the end of the week, we’re testing the lower end of this range on low volume (Figure 1). It would seem that we’ll be going up from here based on the indicators.
However, on the longer term trendlines chart of Figure 2, you can see that we have broken the upward momentum from April 1st and the one in March too (a couple of weeks ago for the March line). We closed the week on a long term support at 887 going all the way back to 2002 as I opined last week. So with so little volume (week before long weekend in U.S.), it’s no wonder we weren’t able to break this support yet.
Consequently, although I’m still bearish, my stop remains tight.
On a sidenote, my GE short position initiated this week has been great. It is a tiny position, but I am following my trading rules religiously and using my new method with good result so far. This test run is giving me confidence about this new stringent trading strategy I’m working on.
S&P 500 ETF
S&P 500 ETF
GICS Sectors Review
| Ticker |
Last |
RSI7d |
RSI7w |
RSI7m |
Zone (estimate) |
|
XLE *
|
48.59 | 46.42 | 60.74 | 39.39 | |
|
XLB *
|
26.40 | 52.66 | 72.32 | 43.95 | |
|
XLI *
|
21.77 | 41.93 | 60.23 | 33.45 | |
|
XLY *
|
22.34 | 39.55 | 59.84 | 43.58 | |
|
XLP *
|
22.79 | 57.15 | 65.26 | 40.46 | |
|
XLV *
|
25.26 | 51.78 | 56.62 | 35.96 | |
|
XLF *
|
11.74 | 49.79 | 65.53 | 37 | |
|
XLK *
|
16.88 | 42.37 | 62.44 | 41.14 | |
|
IYZ *
|
17.29 | 36.83 | 58.23 | 39.76 | |
|
XLU *
|
25.62 | 33.26 | 43.73 | 22.49 |
1 month: XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP XLV XLF XLK IYZ XLU
5 days: XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP XLV XLF XLK IYZ XLU
Weekly Market Review: May 17, 2009
We finally have a week of lower highs and lower lows this week. This week’s move is putting a pause on our multi-week rally since March. However, we closed at the long term support at 883 from the December 2002 crash zone. And as you can see from Figure 2, things are getting pretty congested around this 880 zone. Nevertheless, I’ve initiated a short in GE with a tight stop to catch this ride. I would need to see a more prominent lower high and lower low established before being more aggressive on the shorts.
S&P 500 ETF
S&P 500 ETF
GICS Sectors Review
I’ve taken this chart directly from the Cara Community RSI tool. I find that my graphical charts are not efficient as a summary tool. Hopefully this numerical chart can do complement my charts well. I’ll need to work out a more efficient sectors review system in the future.
| Ticker |
Last |
RSI7d |
RSI7w |
RSI7m |
Zone (estimate) |
|
XLE *
|
48.00 | 44.9 | 54.08 | 37.68 | |
|
XLB *
|
25.83 | 48.95 | 64.88 | 41.39 | |
|
XLI *
|
21.80 | 44.01 | 55.71 | 35.73 | |
|
XLY *
|
22.13 | 32.43 | 54.81 | 42.96 | |
|
XLP *
|
22.37 | 49.17 | 55.9 | 35.7 | |
|
XLV *
|
25.33 | 60.54 | 56.61 | 36.85 | |
|
XLF *
|
11.53 | 48.37 | 56.91 | 33.41 | |
|
XLK *
|
16.80 | 39.51 | 57.75 | 41.83 | |
|
IYZ *
|
17.52 | 43.85 | 58.84 | 41.99 | |
|
XLU *
|
25.94 | 33.99 | 46.27 | 29.79 |
6 months: XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP XLV XLF XLK IYZ XLU
1 month: XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP XLV XLF XLK IYZ XLU
5 days: XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP XLV XLF XLK IYZ XLU
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