This is a small short position entered just seconds before the close today. Here's my case for further weakness.
- The market gap down from this morning remained open.
- We have intraday big block dumps (highest 1 min volume bar correspond with big drop)
- We are making lower highs and lower lows these past few days, although barely
- This market has been brutal on the bears. So a significant move could be imminent as most bearish retailers aren't positioned to benefit from it.
However, the recent strong closes are not to be missed. We've been having good up volume in the last minutes of the close these past few days.My OIH short was a good play today. However, its reward/risk isn't as good now. So I'm entering into RTH purely for its limited risk. It's right up against the resistance now. Although it's very possible that it'll gap up to take out the obvious stops. That's why I'm using a small position in case it gaps up to close the long term gap (\$83.50).
Exit stop: \$82.40
Reward / Risk = 2.96 / 0.44 = 6.7
[caption id="attachment_1642" align="aligncenter" width="500" caption="Retail HOLDRs ETF"][/caption]
[caption id="attachment_1643" align="aligncenter" width="500" caption="Retail HOLDRs ETF"][/caption]
: http://traderpau.files.wordpress.com/2009/07/2009-07-29-rth.png : http://traderpau.files.wordpress.com/2009/07/2009-07-29-rth_prop.png