I've been watching CIBC (CM.TO) for a few months now. CM finally presented a shorting opportunity that I took today. Figure 1 speaks for itself. Furthermore, the lackluster rally in EUR/USD after the ECB's vouch for confidence is encouraging for the bears.
[caption id="" align="aligncenter" width="570" caption="CIBC (CM.TO)"][/caption]
\$74.00 - \$74.50 is a strong resistance for CM. There are three scenarios in which this trade can play out. CM can go up, go down, or move sideway. If CM move upward, I will watch the push above \$74.50. My current exit stop is at \$75.00 (about \$1 on the premium). However, as this is an options position. There is a time decay factor working against me. As such, I will decrease my exit stop by \$1.00 on the share price every month to compensate. For example, by mid-June, my exit stop is \$74.00 on the underlying share price of CM. If CM move downward, I will move my stop to breakeven if it breaks below \$72. If CM move sideway, I will give it a month's time. If CM just consolidates around \$74, I will exit by late June for a loss of \$1 (\$300 total) on the premium. My targets are \$70, \$68, and \$65 as shown on Figure 1. I will tighten my stop passing each support level. My ideal loss is \$300 at most. That represents 3.4% of my total account on this trade.