The market is under pressure as illustrated by EUR/USD weakness (Figure 1). I'm not sure which way it will go just yet. But I am placing my bet on the bears as oil (DBO) has already cracked. I waited the whole week for a retracement to re-enter a short position. I thought the FOMC announcement today could produce some sort of short-term rally. But nothing materialized. This lack of a retracement rally after a 30 points drop in the S&P500 between Monday and Tuesday is good for the bears. Furthermore, seeing that EUR/USD is testing resistance again, I am establishing an equity short with a financial company. In particular, Manulife Financial (MFC.TO) is my victim as it appears to be the weakest of them all (Figure 2).
[caption id="" align="aligncenter" width="570" caption="EUR/USD hourly chart"][/caption] I say that because despite the recent advance in the market, MFC.TO is still struggling around the year-low (Figure 2).
[caption id="" align="aligncenter" width="570" caption="Manulife Financial (MFC.TO)"]1[/caption]
My mental stop is a close above \$16.50. A hard stop is \$1.00 on my options premium.
That equates to (\$1.00 - \$1.48) * 100 * 4 = -\$192 - (\$13.95 x 2) commission = \$219.90 = 2.3% of account.