My short on gold last night was a good call. Gold today is below \$880. After losing a bunch on the Dow, I entered another short position on Gold at \$882.60 out of frustration. In my mind I thought that was a short term top from retracement. In hindsight, it was a bad spot to go short. The indicators were in the middle and price was inching up. It's at \$887.20 at the moment. This emotional trade could cost me dearly. I'll see how it turns out tomorrow.
Update: I entered 2 more shorts at \$880.50 when the retracement seemed weak from the indicators. I now have a total of 4 shorts on YM! I am taking a lot of risk here because with 4 contracts, each 10 point drop would amount to \$1300! However, I strongly believe we are at a short term top in Gold.
While people are still hoping this is just a minor correction before newer highs, the bearish signals in the daily chart are just too clear to not plunge in.
Notice the volume of the last two down days. They are near their high as in the November correction. MACD is also turning down from a fierce run. Stochastic is below signal line and actually crossing 80 as of today. If I might say this again, what really got me is the high volumes in the last two trading days.
The combinations of these signals, alone with the current position of the price high above the Keltner channel, has always produced significant falls in the past year. This time, the volume is ALSO confirmation the signal. So my guess is that this will be a big correction to come. Probably to \$800 or even below.
My 4 stops are set to just above intraday highs and pivot points. If they all hit, I'll lose about \$1500. If this plays out, short term price should be at least back down to 20 MA level (which is also the triangle top) at \$850. My average price is \$885.1. So a potential profit of about \$4500. Thus, reward/risk = \$4500 / \$1500 = 3. Which is pretty good. That's why I convinced myself to take on so many positions.
Anyway, tomorrow should be a telling day as it's the 3rd day since the initial drop. We'll see if the price recover.
: http://bp3.blogger.com/_Vlx60iTPx5s/R45cF_Y4uoI/AAAAAAAAAG0/mSL5Cg4L4_w/s1600-h/gold_day.jpg : http://bp2.blogger.com/_Vlx60iTPx5s/R46FNvY4urI/AAAAAAAAAHM/Zu0vdgpeJcU/s1600-h/gold_daily.jpg