Despite my pessimism, I think this bear rally may have steam to go even farther up in this run before the final flush down. Here're my reasons.
1. We have touched the 38% Fibonacci retracement level precisely last week and have been making higher lows. See Figure 1.
2. As I noted in the morning, the up days have noticeably more volumes than the down days in this rally.
3. My two favourite shorts, GE and GS, are resisting to stay below their supports. In particular, Figure 2 shows that even in today's swinging moves, they closed above their intra-day supports at noon while the S&P 500 broke its intraday support at noon, just barely. In fact, today's move look a lot like TCK when it retraced (and when I unloaded), just to punch through to much higher later. If that's any indication, these two (and the market) will be breaking their long term resistances within days.
[caption id="attachment_1176" align="alignright" width="500" caption="S&P 500"][/caption]
[caption id="attachment_1177" align="alignright" width="500" caption="GE, GS, S&P 500"][/caption]