The U.S. dollar finally picked up some strength last Thursday and I loaded to ride the trend. One of the earliest trade I made in this wave is going long on USD/CHF. Figure 1 is taken today after a full week since the initial move in USD. The vertical line marks the day when I entered this trade on Thursday 22nd late afternoon. Here are my reasons for making the entry:
- Parity level 1.0000 was a mere 30 pips away from the low the day before
- Obvious positive divergence on the indicator, Fig. 1.
- Breakout on the shorter 3-hour timeframe, Fig. 2.
I placed the order just above the resistance and beyond the short term channel. The order was filled the next day in the morning on the 23rd. In hindsight, I should have used a half position only and added to it once it broke the longer term descending resistance as shown in Fig. 2. That's because a short term break is a low probability move given that the downtrend was strong. However, USD/CHF was testing parity, which is as strong a support as you can find for many reasons. As you can see from Fig. 2, the entry was rather good overall (could have been better as discussed above). However, I think the exit was also a disciplined move. My original target was 1.026 as noted below. It was just below that horizontal resistance at 1.0267 which I marked on Fig. 1. Yet, there's also the longer term trendline marked on both Fig. 1 and Fig. 2. I had 4-5 positions open at the time and this was one of my strongest two (the other being CAD/JPY short), so I tried to add to my position once the pair broke that longer term trendline. However, the line proved to be strong as USD/CHF retraced and took out my stop as shown in Fig. 2 (red dot, 2nd from right). Nevertheless, the pair remained above 1.0200 and my core position was safe (I moved my stop up). But not all was well. USD/CHF eventually broke 1.025 but it didn't go far. It printed a couple more bars on the chart while I kept moving my stop closer and closer. Also noting that the pair was short-term overbought, I moved my stop right up to below 1.025 at 1.0245 to lock in most of the profit. That stop was eventually taken out and the pair took a dive as shown in Fig. 2. Moving the stop up tight in a short-term overbought condition was a good choice. I learned this from my recent trades when I left profits on the table. So I got out against my hope for higher pips even when the talk of USD making a return to strength was ubiquitous. I traded what I saw and not what I hoped for, and against the opinions of other people. If only my entry was a bit more patient, this would have been one of my best executed trades. Below are the data for my entries. Position size: 100% First Entry: 1.009 First Stop: 1.0030 First Target: 1.0260 Reward / Risk #1 = 170 / 60 = 2.8 \< 3, but close enough. Second Position Size: 25% Second entry/stop: 1.0232/1.0220 I didn't have a target in mind for this addition because it was only to add on the strength of the existing position.