Post-market analysis December 11, 2008

S&P 500 retraced at exactly the 50% level today, touching a low of 868 and closed at 873. We just broke below my intermediate term channel today. We might test 850 at this point. Breaking below 850 will be an obvious sign of an end to this current rally. I have tightened my stop on DRYS today since I don't intend to hold it through thick and thin.

[caption id="attachment_961" align="aligncenter" width="500" caption="e-mini S&P 500"]e-mini S&P 500[/caption]

On the other hand, I can't help but noticed that we're still within the downtrend started on October 3. This is yet another reason why the current rally hasn't really caught on yet. There are still many people wisely waiting on the sideline. Even I have trimmed my longs and taking on a hedge in the ultrashort financials.

[caption id="attachment_962" align="aligncenter" width="500" caption="S&P 500 ETF"]S&P 500 ETF[/caption]