Short 0.015 CADJPY @ 81.78, Stop 82.00

Edit: I was stopped out overnight for a loss of 0.37%. I am taking a dabble at shorting oil via CAD/JPY. Here are where things stand. [caption id="" align="aligncenter" width="570" caption="CAD/JPY "][][][/caption]

[caption id="" align="aligncenter" width="570" caption="USD/CAD"][]1[/caption]

[caption id="" align="aligncenter" width="570" caption="Crude Oil"][]2[/caption] CAD/JPY is forming a wedge on the 4 hour chart. I am shorting it at resistance and in-line with the downtrend. A break below 81.50 would signal a confirmation for even lower prices.

Risk is about 0.4% of account with a CAD\$15,000 position.

Closed USDCAD short @ 1.06525, breakeven

It seem that USDCAD isn't about to die just yet. My USDCAD short got stopped out at breakeven this morning. In fact, the pair is still struggling around the descending resistance line as shown in Figure 1. It made a higher low so I won't be surprised if it cracks higher. [caption id="" align="aligncenter" width="570" caption="USDCAD, 4-hour"][][][/caption]

The reason why I took this trade was that the opportunity seemed too good to pass on based on my analysis at the time. I always keep an eye on the market even when I'm not trading. Although the basic setup remains intact, the opportunity isn't so fantastic that I couldn't say no anymore.

Anyway, I shouldn't be wasting time managing a minuscule trade. Back to staring at codes.

Posted 31 August 2010 in forex.

Short USDCAD @ 1.0654, Stop 1.077

This is my first real forex trade after a year minus one day of studying the market and paper trading. Shorted USDCAD based on the following intermarket observations:

  1. Yesterday's equities sell-off held around S&P at 1050
  2. Overnight Asian market seem orderly, not every market followed through, but most did
  3. European markets down move were slow overnight until US open
  4. But perhaps most importantly, EUR/USD made a higher low with an increasing COT

Basically, as much as the sell-off tries to scare off people, the markets don't seem to be moving in unison. So it would seem this move (in equities, thus inverse USD) is still a bear trap in an intermediate term bull rally. Plus this daily chart, Figure 1, for picking USDCAD specifically. [caption id="" align="aligncenter" width="570" caption="USDCAD daily chart"][][][/caption] And this 4-hour chart for trade execution.

[caption id="" align="aligncenter" width="570" caption="USDCAD 4-hour"][]1[/caption] Size of trade is 1000 unit. Risking about 0.05% of capital with a hard stop at 1.077. Anything above 1.070 would put me on alert though. Coincidentally, I first got into the forex market by studying the loonie. Let's see how this first trade performs.

Posted 25 August 2010 in forex.

Lucky exit for CAD/JPY long yesterday, downtrend resumes now?

I booked my profit on my CAD/JPY long last night mere pips away from the top. It was a lucky move, that's all. Now it looks as though CAD/JPY will do one of the following:

  1. Break down from here. A break below 86.50 will confirm an intermediate term downtrend. However, I don't expect CAD/JPY to spin on a dime right after testing an obvious resistance. So I think #2 is more likely.
  2. False breakdown to above 86.50, retrace to 88.00, and hang around this range for a few more days then initiate an intermediate term price fall (#1).
  3. Although unlikely, case #3 is still possible. CAD/JPY can remain suppressed at this 87 price level and creep upward deviously to test 89.30.

The difference between #1 and #2 could be subtle. But I couldn't bank on either one yet because the reward/risk isn't favourable at this moment. So I'm going to stay on the sideline and wait for a better price or for the signs to be clearer. On another note, I'm still keeping an eye on gold and Aussie. There should be a big one soon.

[caption id="" align="aligncenter" width="570" caption="CAD/JPY, daily"][][][/caption]

Posted 22 February 2010 in forex.

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