SOLD -58 CAF @21.69

[caption id="attachment_664" align="aligncenter" width="500" caption="Morgan Stanley China A Share Fund"][Morgan Stanley China A
Share Fund][][/caption]

I've sold my CAF position bought at \$28.89 for \$21.69. A loss of about \$430. I placed a limit order, and only 56 of the 58 went through. I'll assume my 2 remaining shares will go through some time today (it has gone through as I'm writing this). Fee \$5.

CAF gapped open about \$2 today due to this weekend's news of China's plan for a stimulus package of about US\$586 billion. However, CAF seem to be being faded on this news. The total downtick volume looks significant.

On the other hand, FXP (UltraShort China) looks to be on the rise. A break of above \$70 would be very bullish for it.

[caption id="attachment_665" align="aligncenter" width="500" caption="UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares"][UltraShort
FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares][][/caption]

My bullish view on China in the long term still remains strong. However, I don't think we're in a time for buy-and-hold strategy anymore. This is definitely a trader's market and I intend to put my money for swing trading opportunities. Even though I sold at a significant loss and a return of CAF to \$25 level seems likely in the short term, I believe I will lose even more in opportunity cost if my fund is tied with CAF. So I'm exiting on this weekend news and price strength.

[Morgan Stanley China A Share Fund]: [UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares]:

Mid-week Positions Review, October 21, 2008

[caption id="attachment_421" align="aligncenter" width="500" caption="CAF, DELL, ESLR, SLW"][CAF, DELL, ESLR, SLW][][/caption]

Like the market, my holdings are going sideway this week near their lows. Based on the price/volume observation this week, here's my short-term ranking from strong to weak.

  1. ESLR
  2. DELL
  3. CAF
  4. SLW

I feel ESLR is strongest because of the last hour spike last Friday on 1 million+ volume. They are now sueing Barclays and Lehman to return their 30.9 million loaned shares.

DELL is showing some resilience despite negative news on Yahoo today. It is testing its low the 2nd time at end-of-day today on a regular late-day volume. The next day or two will be important times for DELL in the short term.

CAF is just drifting sideway for now on low volume.

SLW is now under pressure because of weakness in precious metals and the Euro.


Posted 21 October 2008 in stocks.

Positions review after the crash in first week of October 2008

[caption id="attachment_375" align="aligncenter" width="500" caption="CAF, DELL, ESLR, SLW"][CAF, DELL, ESLR, SLW][][/caption]

It's time to review my positions as promised last week. After the record up day on Monday and then the lackluster follow-through Tuesday, today is probably going to be a down day in the markets. Given my intermediate term outlook, I am inclined to hold my positions. However, I need to unload my weakest link to reduce my risk.

Above is a quick snapshot of my current holdings.

Notice that DELL and ESLR are holding on nicely on this down (DJX -3.18%, SPX -3.57% as of this writing) day after the previous spike. This is a very good sign indeed as it shows they're likly to hold on to the previous \~20% gain, at least for now.

Actually, the price action of ESLR seem very healthy in particular. There's been a couple of big volume spikes in late day trading. Although it does seem to be in a constant downtrend, as you can see from its chart.

As for CAF and SLW they are both below support at the moment. CAF has broken its \$25 support last Friday and is trading below it at the moment. SLW is definitely the weakest at the moment. If it isn't such a cash cow, I would probably be selling it in yesterday's rally. Furthermore, it still seems to be holding on to its decending support line on the daily chart today.

[caption id="attachment_377" align="aligncenter" width="500" caption="SLW"][SLW][][/caption]

At this point, the question I ask myself is, if I'm in all cash now, would I be buying these companies at this point? CAF - yes, DELL - yes, ESLR - yes, SLW - yes. Is this the bottom? I don't know. I'll just have to wait and see. However, I will watch the day-to-day action of my holdings carefully and unload one of two of them to reduce my risk.


BOUGHT +58 [email protected] 28.89 LIMIT

[caption id="attachment_284" align="aligncenter" width="500" caption="CAF"][CAF][][/caption]

This is suppose to be another of my GTC limit order before leaving to Taiwan. I've set the buy order at \$25.0 on 25th. I got back on the 30th (29th EST) and CAF looked strong. So I wanted to replace my \$25 bid to \$26... However, I wasn't careful and the trading platform changed the limit price to the market ask without me realizing until I placed the order. Of course, then the order was filled and I got in at \$28.89, higher than I would have wanted. I thought of exiting the position immediately, at a small lost, but decided against it because I felt CAF is going strong. I didn't need to pick the bottom and I was never good at that anway. So I chose to stick with this entry.

But what do ya know, that afternoon, the US House decided to reject the \$700-billion rescue plan. DJIA tanked 777 points that day and the financials were hit the hardest of course. My \$26 bid would have seemed like an ingeneous entry as CAF hit a low of \$25.11 that day. However, I wouldn't have guessed that.

Given the high amount of volume at the low and near the end of the trading day, I doubt we will see that price any time soon for CAF. \$25 is definitely a strong support.

Upside: Daily chart still looks good. Financials are in severe panic mode.

Resistance: A downward trendline is capping recent highs. \$30 round number looks like the high end of trading range.

Downside: Possible turn to bearish from indicators. Financials earnings coming soon, the numbers aren't gonna be pretty.

Support: \$26 looks like the bottom of the trading range we're in now.

Bottom Line: CAF has weathered the Dow 777 day drop with style. It has shown strength at the worst of times. However, don't expect a steady climb from here. At this market's condition, anything is possible (i.e. more panic days in the coming weeks and CAF would be thrown out along with the financials again). I don't think this is to be a buy and hold position yet. So watch for breakouts either way and be ready to trade in and out.

On another note, if I have more funds, I'd rather be scaling in CAF on the lows for the long term instead of swing trading for a few bucks.


Posted 01 October 2008 in stocks.

continue   →