BOUGHT +4 ESLR 100 DEC 08 5 PUT @1.40

[caption id="attachment_626" align="aligncenter" width="500" caption="ESLR"][ESLR][][/caption]

Covered my short puts on ESLR shorted at \$1.60 yesterday for \$1.40. The S&P just touched 930 level and backed down. This could go up to 940 or back down to 900. The risk/reward doesn't look too good, so I'm unloading my ESLR options to re-enter later.

This was a short term position as planned. On the other hand, I unloaded my DELL options a bit too early in hindsight. DELL was about 12.17 when I exited, now it's at 12.36.


SOLD -4 ESLR 100 DEC 08 5 PUT @1.60

[caption id="attachment_615" align="aligncenter" width="500" caption="Evergreen Solar"][Evergreen Solar][][/caption]

Wrote some puts on ESLR for Dec08 at strike 5 for \$1.60. Yesterday after market, news of a judge denying Evergreen request on return of Barclays shares sent the shares tumbling today. Furthermore, the overall market is sinking on light volume since the election.

However, today's open 15min volume is about 40% lower than than the up open volume on Monday at the same price level. In other words, the panic selling isn't as that bad, although the price has dropped 12%.

Upside: Good up volume, light down volume on 15 min and daily chart for the past week and more. Broad market selloff shows positive divergence on various indicators intraday. ESLR prices retraced to about 62% of fibonacci level and bouncing back up.

Resistance: \$6, peaked at \$5.72 a couple of days ago too and congestion at that point from farther back.

Downside: Broad market selloff. Low volume rally before election. Low volume selloff after election. Just low volume all week in the market. ESLR not profitable yet. Factory done next June. Difficult to raise capital to expand production to meet backlog in these times.

Support: 20 dma at \$3.50.

Bottom line: Recent solar rally looked strong. Company outlook seems good. Profit taking retracement plus the overnight bad news together haven't broken the new uptrend yet. This will again be a bullish swing trade.

The broad market shouldn't fall to a new low prior to breaking some highs. Everyone that wants to sell has sold in the October crash already. We need some new highs and optimism to lure in new blood to be sucked on by the pros before another crash can be profitable to them.

[Evergreen Solar]:

Mid-week Positions Review, October 21, 2008

[caption id="attachment_421" align="aligncenter" width="500" caption="CAF, DELL, ESLR, SLW"][CAF, DELL, ESLR, SLW][][/caption]

Like the market, my holdings are going sideway this week near their lows. Based on the price/volume observation this week, here's my short-term ranking from strong to weak.

  1. ESLR
  2. DELL
  3. CAF
  4. SLW

I feel ESLR is strongest because of the last hour spike last Friday on 1 million+ volume. They are now sueing Barclays and Lehman to return their 30.9 million loaned shares.

DELL is showing some resilience despite negative news on Yahoo today. It is testing its low the 2nd time at end-of-day today on a regular late-day volume. The next day or two will be important times for DELL in the short term.

CAF is just drifting sideway for now on low volume.

SLW is now under pressure because of weakness in precious metals and the Euro.


Posted 21 October 2008 in stocks.

Positions review after the crash in first week of October 2008

[caption id="attachment_375" align="aligncenter" width="500" caption="CAF, DELL, ESLR, SLW"][CAF, DELL, ESLR, SLW][][/caption]

It's time to review my positions as promised last week. After the record up day on Monday and then the lackluster follow-through Tuesday, today is probably going to be a down day in the markets. Given my intermediate term outlook, I am inclined to hold my positions. However, I need to unload my weakest link to reduce my risk.

Above is a quick snapshot of my current holdings.

Notice that DELL and ESLR are holding on nicely on this down (DJX -3.18%, SPX -3.57% as of this writing) day after the previous spike. This is a very good sign indeed as it shows they're likly to hold on to the previous \~20% gain, at least for now.

Actually, the price action of ESLR seem very healthy in particular. There's been a couple of big volume spikes in late day trading. Although it does seem to be in a constant downtrend, as you can see from its chart.

As for CAF and SLW they are both below support at the moment. CAF has broken its \$25 support last Friday and is trading below it at the moment. SLW is definitely the weakest at the moment. If it isn't such a cash cow, I would probably be selling it in yesterday's rally. Furthermore, it still seems to be holding on to its decending support line on the daily chart today.

[caption id="attachment_377" align="aligncenter" width="500" caption="SLW"][SLW][][/caption]

At this point, the question I ask myself is, if I'm in all cash now, would I be buying these companies at this point? CAF - yes, DELL - yes, ESLR - yes, SLW - yes. Is this the bottom? I don't know. I'll just have to wait and see. However, I will watch the day-to-day action of my holdings carefully and unload one of two of them to reduce my risk.


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