First QTD trade, 0.19% gain long EURGBP

My semi-automated trading system, Quantised Trading Desk, closed its first trade this week. I was bullish EURGBP and USDJPY, and bearish NZDUSD as per the previous discussions. The QTD system saved me from the premature calls in both USDJPY and NZDUSD by not making any trade this week. That, in and of itself, has made me very happy with QTD's first week of live trading. Particular in light of how fierce that USDJPY down move has been. As a bonus, QTD entered a long position in EURGBP for a small 0.19% gain as illustrated below. My parameter were a maximum of 0.25% risk per position. The gain could have been better if it weren't for that 61% retracement. Not that I'm complaining as I haven't even looked at the market this past couple of days while the system is trading for me. USDJPY touched my threshold support price 80.70, my bullish sentiment needs to be reevaluated. NZDUSD just cracked a higher high (marginally though), so I'm easing on the bear button for now. EURGBP is testing some resistance to, so I'm not so eager to dive in again. Overall, I've been 2/3 wrong. I've told you before that I'm very bad at timing the market. That's why I developed QTD to trade for me. Seeing that it's a long weekend, and I'll be way from town, I'm just going to shut down my remote trade server in London until next week when I can have some time to re-do my analysis. [caption id="attachment_5361" align="aligncenter" width="580" caption="EURGBP, hourly"][][][/caption]


Posted 21 April 2011 in forex.

Bullish EURGBP as hedge and Bearish NZDUSD as diversification

I've had more time to study the market tonight and is running a second and a third instances of Quantised Trading Desk (QTD) to trade 3 currencies in total simultaneously. For my dollar bull sentiment, I'm dividing between USDJPY long and NZDUSD short. QTD still hasn't taken a position in USDJPY in the past 24 hours. That's a good thing as USDJPY is still drifting downward today even as the dollar is gaining some ground. My line in the sand is at 80.70 for USDJPY and above 0.8100 for NZDUSD. EURGBP long is a hedge against my dollar longs. Again, I'm not making any trade at this point but merely setting up QTD to wait for the right moments to enter. A break below 0.8660 for EURGBP would challenge my bullish bias. These three currencies should be my complete market bias for a while. I'm just going to let QTD do its thing and trade for me. Hopefully this will be the last you'll hear from me about my market bias for a while. [caption id="attachment_5342" align="aligncenter" width="580" caption="NZDUSD, weekly"][][][/caption] [caption id="attachment_5343" align="aligncenter" width="580" caption="EURGBP, weekly"][][][/caption]

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Posted 18 April 2011 in forex.

Paper trade: GBPJPY @ 145.24, Stop 144.70, Target 148

Update: I've switched over to long EURJPY @ 125.40 as EURGBP's downtrend seem to be running out of steam. Moreover, EURJPY looks better on the daily chart with a clear support and an oversold reading. I'm back in my long GBPJPY play at 145.24. The currency pair is breaking an hourly resistance since consolidating around 145. I had a low ball offer at 144.20 since taking my profit last night at 146.42. But that bid for never filled. So I'm re-entering on a short-term breakout. For this entry, I am risking 0.1% of my account. This re-entry is a tough decision. Almost all the respectable pros that I follow on Twitter are on the other side of this trade via other currency pairs. However, my long setup is valid as long as GBPJPY is above 144 level. So I'll take this trade until proven otherwise. Although I must admit that my confidence in this trade is very low. I also considered long CADJPY instead as it seems to offer more upside potential. However, as I've been following the GBPJPY pair this week, I'll stick with my plan. I also have a limit order to add more at 145.81 as you can see in Figure 1 below.

[caption id="" align="aligncenter" width="570" caption="GBP/JPY, 3-hour"][][][/caption]

Posted 28 January 2010 in forex.

Paper trade: Closed GBPJPY @ 146.42 for +140 pips

Just closed my GBPJPY long at 146.42 for around +140 pips average gain, or 0.4% in the account balance. Damn good for a 24 hours holding. Obama just finished his State of The Union address at the moment. I am not impressed. Still all talk of change but nothing concrete yet. Anyway, that's beside the point in this trade log. 146.50 price level for GBPJPY is the 10 day moving average. It has also been a strong support back in late December. This should be a good resistance level. My guess is that GBPJPY should stall, or even retrace, here for a while. Thus I'm taking profit at this price as shown in Figure 1 (yellow triangle). I still believe my bullish setup from yesterday is still good. So I'll be watching this pair for a re-entry. Update: I re-entered at 145.24 the next day.

[caption id="" align="aligncenter" width="570" caption="GBPJPY, 3-hour"][][][/caption]

Posted 27 January 2010 in forex.

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