Bought 1000 PMV.VN @ 0.62

Update January 26: The share price of PMV.V crossed my mental stop yesterday so I had to reassess the position. I sold my shares at \$0.56 for a loss of (\$0.56 - \$0.62) * 1000 = \$70 + \$19.90 commission = \$89.90 = 0.9% of account. Gold is falling while USD tanked this week. The lack of volume on today's goldminers rally is also uncharacteristic of the recent uptrend. The long term uptrend of gold and gold miners is unmistakable on both fundamental and technical basis. I am taking a dabble in this junior gold miner as its share price is making a gap fill on a recent breakout (Fig. 1), amongst other things. Intraday chart (Fig. 2) is also showing signs of life at this support level. What's going to happen to gold as it breaks below 1350 (first time since November) from worries about Chinese inflation, which led to strength in USD (on fear of further Chinese tightening) as EURUSD dropped 60 pips in 2 hours. See FT: Fears grow that China is overheating. Couple that with political and economic uncertainty, we have a short term uncertainty in gold's direction. However, all these is in line with the underlying gold-bug case that money is becoming more worthless as governments pump in money to their respective economies. Another point to note is that as the Shanghai Composite and Bombay Stock Exchange (i.e. growth markets) are making 3-month lows in recent weeks, people will start to look for other assets to diversify their wealth. This is all conjectures anyway. I can't predict the future.I am merely placing my bet as the stars seem to have aligned for me to increase the probability of this good reward/risk trade. Mental stop is \$0.55. Hard stop is \$0.48, however, I'll give it some margin and say 0.40 is my stop as liquidity is thin in this junior. Thus, risk is (\$0.62 - \$0.40) * 1000 = \$220 + \$9.95 commission = \$229.95 = 2.4% of account. Note: You might have noticed that my trade log style has changed for 2011. I am trying to jot down my thought process rather than the data analysis and numerical logic to better capture my thinking for the record.

[caption id="" align="aligncenter" width="570" caption="PMI Gold Corp. (PMV.V)"][][][/caption] [caption id="" align="aligncenter" width="570" caption="PMI Gold Corp. (PMV.V) intraday"][]1[/caption]

Posted 20 January 2011 in stocks.

Sold 200 LLL.TO @ 48.00, Profit +1.9%

I'm out of my Lululemon position minutes prior to the close. Holding time was just a day. I would have liked to hold this position for longer but the market is directionless. In addition, the stop hunt on the shorts in LLL.TO is unmistakable as seen in Figure 1. Option expiration is this Friday. So I'm taking my profit now prior to expected volatility. A reward/risk of 2 to 1 is too tempting to let go. However, LLL.TO is pushing higher into the close. So perhaps this is yet another lack of patience on my part. Update Nov 18: Yes, I was too early indeed. LLL.TO gapped upward the day after my exit. Option pain is pegged at \$45 on the American shares (NASDAQ:LULU). LULU is trading just above \$47 as I close my position. [caption id="" align="aligncenter" width="570" caption="Lululemon (LLL.TO)"][][][/caption] Profit is (\$48.00 - \$47.04) * 200 = \$192 - \$9.90 commission = \$182.1 = 1.9% of account. It's fortunate that I'm able to bounce right back to regain most of my losses in my worst trade this year within a week.

Bought 200 LLL.TO @ 47.04, Stop 46.50

Market is tanking (Figure 1). Lots of pessimism in the news. Time for me to load on some growth stocks. I'm passing the goldminers in this move as the dollar seem to be rising from the dead and gold may be consolidating.

[caption id="" align="aligncenter" width="570" caption="TSX, 12500 looks like a fine support, doesn't it?"][][][/caption]

Instead, I'm picking a growth stock, Lululemon (LLL.TO). Lululemon is holding well in this down move. Furthermore, the intraday test of support at 46.50 looks promising as there were few sellers at that price level. The recent break above long-term resistance at 48 is good too. So is the 19.6% short float... Anyway, you get the picture.

[caption id="" align="aligncenter" width="570" caption="Lululemon (LLL.TO)"][]1[/caption] Risk is (\$47.04 - \$46.50) * 200 = \$108 + \$9.90 commission = \$117.9 = 1.2% of account. Update: Woodshedder's post today explains his current view of the market, which happens to coincide with mine at this time.

Covered 4 MFC 11JAN Puts 14.00.MX @ 0.45, Mark 14.80, Loss -2.3%

The S&P500 is filling its gap from that big up move on November 4. EUR/USD is bouncing off a long term support around 1.3600. Thus I'm covering my short in Manulife Financial (MFC.TO) before the weekend. This position turned out horribly. I've been waiting for MFC.TO to print 14.50, just above its 38.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 14.40 on the recent spike. But 14.80 doesn't seem to budge even today with all that bearishness floating around. Intraday volume is also decreasing on every new test of this intraday support. So I'm throwing in the towel here. Loss is (\$0.45 - \$0.93) * 4 * 100 = -\$192 - \$27.90 = -\$219.90 = -2.3% of account.

[caption id="" align="aligncenter" width="570" caption="Manulife Financial (MFC.TO)"][][][/caption]

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