SLW: Long Entry Stop $8.15 / Exit Stop $8.05

The World Bank forecast released today is putting severe pressure on equities and commodities.

SLW is testing a long term support at \$8.05, Figure 1 and 2. This SLW resistance correspond with a long term support of e-mini Silver at \$13.85 (Figure 3).

(My entry stop just got triggered as I was typing this.)

Long entry stop: \$8.15, intraday resistance

Exit stop: \$8.05, long term support

Target: \$9.60, bottom of recent acending channel

Reward / Risk = 1.55 / 0.1 = 15.5 > 5.0

As Bill noted in his weekly review, we only have 7 sessions left until the end of quarter. It would seem that the market wouldn't tank in the last few days just so companies can paint a pretty picture that all is well and recovering in their quarterly report.

Update 11:38am: My exit stop at \$8.05 was triggered and I'm out of the position. I'll wait until end of the day to see if I should re-enter this position.

Update: I re-entered my long at 12:52 for \$8.06. New stop is \$7.90, a support from a couple weeks ago. I'll move my stop up if we move above \$8.20.

Update June 23: I was stopped out at \$7.90 at 10:31.

[caption id="attachment_1532" align="aligncenter" width="500" caption="Silver Wheaton"][Silver Wheaton][][/caption]

[caption id="attachment_1533" align="aligncenter" width="500" caption="Silver Wheaton"][Silver Wheaton][][/caption]

[caption id="attachment_1534" align="aligncenter" width="500" caption="Gold and Silver"][Gold and Silver][][/caption]

[Silver Wheaton]: http://traderpau.files.wordpress.com/2009/06/2009-06-22-slw.png [Silver Wheaton]: http://traderpau.files.wordpress.com/2009/06/2009-06-22-slw_prop.png [Gold and Silver]: http://traderpau.files.wordpress.com/2009/06/2009-06-22-gold-silver.png

Posted 22 June 2009 in stocks.

SOLD -120 SLW @5.15033

Blood on the market again. I've dumped my SLW since it broke my stop of \$5.30 cleanly at the open. I wouldn't touch it again until SLW can clear above \$5.40 or below \$4.70.

I bought this position for \$5.73 a few days ago. That's a net loss, with commission, of \$49.60. Add to the fact that SLW once rose to \$6.40 between now and when I bought. I have once again let profits turn to losses.

In hindsight, the low volume top on Jan 9th followed by a gap downthe next day should be strong warning sign. Then a hard stop should be placed at the support of Jan 10th at about \$5.65.

[caption id="attachment_1032" align="aligncenter" width="500" caption="Silver Wheaton"]Silver Wheaton[/caption]

Posted 15 January 2009 in stocks.

BOUGHT +120 SLW @5.73

Bought some SLW to balance my portfolio. I sold all my SLW last week and still held on to my short hedge. So I was heavy on the short side since the weekend.

We had the first 2009 down day on the market today. But SLW held on to its support level and the last few minutes saw some heavy buying. So I'm taking a small position in SLW to test the water. I will keep a tight stop on this trade as my indicators are showing further downside.

In other words, the short term price action looked positive today but my indicators are showing a negative move for the intermediate term.

[caption id="attachment_1010" align="aligncenter" width="500" caption="Silver Wheaton"]Silver Wheaton[/caption]

[caption id="attachment_1011" align="aligncenter" width="500" caption="Silver Wheaton"]Silver Wheaton[/caption]

Furthermore, silver prices seem to be edging higher. We just tested the 20 day MA again. Lately, silver has been gliding along its 20 day MA. But we saw significant volume today on this test of support, so there's a good chance we might break down from here. That's another reason why I'm keeping a tight stop on this trade.

[caption id="attachment_1012" align="aligncenter" width="500" caption="Silver"]Silver[/caption]

Upside: Tested 20 day MA. Good last few minute up trades. Both 20-day and 50-day MA are positive.

Resistance: \$7

Downside: Indicators show intermediate-term weakness. Possible double top with negative divergence.

Support: \$5.50. (This will be my mental stop for this trade.)

Bottom line: I'm adding a small long position here to balance my portfolio. As of this writing, I am net neutral with my portfolio. The idea is to have both feet in the water and then add to strength as the market unfolds.

Posted 07 January 2009 in stocks.

SOLD -246 SLW @6.64028

After holding SLW for a few weeks, I'm finally out for now. I have traded in and out of SLW for the past few months. So there isn't an exact price and date of entry for these 246 shares. The effective purchase price was about \$3.50.

As I noted more than a few times in the past, I love SLW. I intended to hold it as my core position for the long term. However, as I have learned the hard way, buy-and-hold isn't an effective strategy in the current market condition. So I've decided to sell my SLW on some significant weakness.

From Figure 1, SLW has tested the long term resistance (from 2007) of \$7 twice recently. We still haven't broken it despite S&P 500 breaking its own resistance. Moreover, we can see from Figure 2 that this second top is a lot weaker across the indicators. So this is effectively a double top formation, for now.

I still have my reserve on this because it is a holiday week, so low volume is expected. Thus, I would watch for SLW's action next week and see if it can break \$7 and then get back in at a higher price. I'd rather miss out on a \$1 or even \$2 than watch it make a double top. I have nearly doubled on this trade so I'm just trying not to be greedy.

However, there is a possibility that we might gap up from here and rocket higher next week. If that's the case, I will probably not chase it and look for another trade (TCK looks good).

[caption id="attachment_999" align="aligncenter" width="500" caption="Silver Wheaton"]Silver Wheaton[/caption]

[caption id="attachment_1000" align="aligncenter" width="500" caption="Silver Wheaton"]Silver Wheaton[/caption]

Posted 03 January 2009 in stocks.

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