My SRS position is deep underwater. To add to the mistake, I added
to it last Thursday in a hurry hoping for a rebound from a massive
selloff to a new 52-week low. Even though the chart looked like it was
testing support last Thursday, I should have waited for a rebound
before entering. And second, if I don't even have the time to write
my trade log, I should never enter a trade.
This is definitely a wakeup call to rectify my tendency of entering too
early in the short term. I have since mentally walked through what I
should have done and have come up with a simple entry strategy that I
will follow from now on. Basically, I will wait validation of a intraday
low and then enter only if it passes its intraday resistance. Then I
will set a hard stop just below a recent support. This will no doubt
create a lot more stopped out trades, but it's up to me to find high
probability trades. All it needs now is some verification...
In any case, I clearly need to spend less time trading and more time
developing my skills and strategies.
Back to the positions at hand. From Figure 1, SRS is at the bottom of a
long term down trend. Stop is \$30. Target is \$41. From the look of it,
SRS will be going down even further if the market can hold its ground
above 850. However, if the market fails to climb up, then yesterday's
slightly higher low than Monday is a small plus point for SRS.
Update: Interestingly, in today's news U.S. Foreclosures Jumped in
March and General Growth Files For Bankruptcy: Report. The 2nd news
came in the middle of the night. And it's nowhere to be found unless you
really look for it. I only read about it from CaraCommunity. For one
of the largest REIT to declare bankruptcy, you'd think it'd be all over
the news. Doesn't take a genious to figure this incident is deliberately
[caption id="attachment_1241" align="aligncenter" width="500"
caption="Ultrashort Real Estate ETF"][/caption]
My USO position is faring better, although it's merely hovering above
my entry price. Now that the April roll over of USO is complete,
the downward pressure on USO should be gone. Even during the roll over,
USO has managed to remain above its upward trendline. This is definitely
a big plus.
New stop is \$28.80 and conservative target is \$32.
[caption id="attachment_1242" align="aligncenter" width="500"
caption="US Oil Fund ETF"][/caption]