An illustration of what it means by missing the boat in trading

As I wrote last Friday, I took a long position in Teck Resources (TCK-B.TO) at \$36.03 but got stopped out at breakeven. In hindsight, the retracement after testing the \$37 resistance held the 50% level near the close. That was a bullish sign that I missed at the time and only realized during my weekend review. As you know, the TSX market gapped about 2% up and S&P gapped about 4% up right at the open. The market traded in a range all day but managed to hold the gap. However, EUR/USD closed its gap and is testing 1.27 support as I write this. The EUR/USD pair will be an important pair to watch as the European Union drama unfolds. With regard to TCK, Figure 1 speaks for itself. It gapped up about 8% and closed up 8.78% at \$39.53. I decided not to chase the market early on today as the reward/risk ratio just isn't as appealing anymore. There are always opportunities sailing around the corner. So there is no need to go out of breath chasing that one missed boat.

[caption id="" align="aligncenter" width="570" caption="Tech Resources (TCK-B.TO)"][][][/caption]

Posted 10 May 2010 in trading.

Bought 110 TCK.B.TO @ 36.03, stopped out at breakeven

Update May 10: Looks like I missed the boat. TCK.B gapped up almost 7% at the Monday open to \$38.88. I won't be chasing the market at this point as the reward/risk ratio isn't appealing anymore. Update: I got stopped out at breakeven (after commission) before I can post this piece at the end of the day. I'm back to all cash going into the weekend. I am taking a dip in Teck Resources (TCK/B.TO) with 110 shares bought at \$36.03. This is a trade to "buy when everyone else is in fear". Following my assessment of the market yesterday, I don't think things are that bad, yet. So I am establishing a small position in a strong company today. TCK is trading on its 200 day moving average at \$35 this week (Figure 1). Yesterday's epic dive and recovery didn't break this \$35 support. So that's a very good sign for TCK.

[caption id="" align="aligncenter" width="570" caption="Tech Resources (TCK-B.TO)"][][][/caption] Furthermore, \$35 is an obvious psychological round number support. It is also above the recent low of \$32.50 printed in February of this year as shown in Figure 1. The oscillator value (top of Figure 1) is making a positive divergence as TCK is testing this support level). I entered today based on the 5-day intraday chart. This morning's opening hour test of \$35 support has lower volume than earlier this week (Figure 2). As such, I think \$35 can hold. So I entered when the price shot above minor resistance at \$36.

[caption id="" align="aligncenter" width="570" caption="TCK-B.TO intraday snapshot at time of entry"][]1[/caption] The price drifted back under \$35.50 after I entered but then reversed and tested \$37. I moved my stop loss to breakeven as it touched an equidistance price opposite of my stop. Just so I don't see profits turn into losses. If I get stopped out today, I will not re-enter until after the weekend. My target is \$40 and original stop was \$35 for about a 4 to 1 reward to risk ratio. I am risking 1.25% in this trade with a position size of 110 shares.

Teck ResourcesTeck Resources ============================

Posted 07 May 2010 in stocks.

SOLD -277 TCK @4.87

I took some time today during lunch to study the move of TCK. TCK made it above \$5.00 in the morning with mediocre volume. Then I watched it break above \$5 again around noon and it was disappointingly unspectacular. This isn't a good sign. On top of this, S&P 500 seems to be on the verge of breaking below the support of 780 as I've noted in the morning pre-market analysis. So I decided to place a stop to close my long-held position at \$4.87, just below yesterday's intra-day trough at \$4.88. TCK was marked at \$4.98 or so at the time.

Then at 13:19, my stop was triggered. Two hours later, TCK is now trading at \$4.65. The S&P is holding out at 770, which isn't all that bad. Perhaps this is just a shakeout before another leg of this bull run. Perhaps 800 was indeed the end of this leg of the rally. I'm not sure at the moment. What matters is that [from my analysis, there is a higher risk than reward expectancy at the moment][]. So I'm just saving my chips rather than risk them over the weekend.

[caption id="attachment_1108" align="aligncenter" width="500" caption="Teck Cominco Ltd."]Teck Cominco Ltd.[/caption]

[from my analysis, there is a higher risk than reward expectancy at the moment]: http://www.quantisan.com/market-weekly-review-march-17-2009/

Posted 20 March 2009 in stocks.

BOUGHT +150 TCK @4.77973

Added to TCK on this 30 point S&P500 drop day. I now have a full position in TCK. Why am I adding to a losing position? Here's why.

[caption id="attachment_1027" align="aligncenter" width="500" caption="Teck Cominco"]Teck Cominco[/caption]

Stop: \$4.50

Target: \$7.0

Posted 14 January 2009 in stocks.

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