Bought +1 VNO 100 SEP 09 60 PUT @5.69, Mark 57.48

I'm back in Vornado Realty Trust (VNO) once again. This time, I'm giving it a longer time frame by buying the September puts instead of the August. The 60 puts premium between the August and September is only more by 25% or so. And the theta on the September puts are lower.

The market is very choppy lately around this 1000 pivot for the S&P500. Thus, I've found myself spending way too much time watching the market when I'm supposed to be doing other things. So I'm putting my chips in now, at a point which I think have passed the near term top based on yesterday's close and today's open, to keep myself off the screen.

I was comparing between VNO or COF for this position. Both looked like good candidates for a short but VNO has a higher weekly RSI at the moment, so I decided to go for it.

Entry: \$57.48

Stop: \$58, today's high at the open

Target: \$45, see Figure 2

Also, I've put in a hard stop for my RTH August put too.

Update: I was trying to place a stop order just now and forgot to change it from the default limit order to stop, so I accidentally sold my puts with a horrible spread for \$6.01!

[caption id="attachment_1667" align="aligncenter" width="500" caption="Vornado Realty Trust"][Vornado Realty Trust][][/caption]

[caption id="attachment_1668" align="aligncenter" width="500" caption="Vornado Realty Trust"][Vornado Realty Trust][][/caption]

[Vornado Realty Trust]: http://traderpau.files.wordpress.com/2009/08/2009-08-06-vno.png [Vornado Realty Trust]: http://traderpau.files.wordpress.com/2009/08/2009-08-06-vno_prop.png

Posted 06 August 2009 in stocks.

Sold -2 VNO 100 AUG 09 55 PUT @1.90 Mark 56.1399

Well this VNO short from the morning didn't last long. My stop got triggered in the afternoon on the same day. I was taking a wait and see approach when VNO pushed above \$55.40. Once my stop was hit, VNO steamed upward without taking a breather. So I ended up having to ditch my puts at a higher than expected loss. Total loss is about \$120 + \$15.

I thought I was being safe already by entering a bit later than usual. But what got me this time is for failing to set a hard stop. When we dipped below \$54 momentarily in the morning and then held a higher low, that should have been the first warning. And when we held above \$54.50 for most of the day, that was the second warning. Then when we broke above \$55, I should have dumped my shorts.

[caption id="attachment_1661" align="aligncenter" width="500" caption="Vornado Realty Trust"][Vornado Realty Trust][][/caption]

[Vornado Realty Trust]: http://traderpau.files.wordpress.com/2009/08/2009-08-05-vno1.png

Posted 05 August 2009 in stocks.

Bought +2 VNO 100 AUG 09 55 PUT @2.50 Mark 54.60

Remember Vornado Realty Trust (VNO)? Well, I'm back to shorting it with this new August puts position. Yesterday, Ultrashort Real Estate (SRS) tanked about 9% to touch \$13 while the overall market is mostly unchanged. I also noticed some big down TICK (\< -1000) were finally appearing. This is a sign that big blocks were being dumped. We haven't see those in a long time.

I tried to short VNO near the close but the price never came back to me. VNO stayed below \$54 resistance. So I held my bid to wait for today. We seem to have a lot of bear traps lately so it's better late than early. Well, today we broke above \$55 to touch \$55.61 (a major resistance) and backed down immediately. In the first half hour alone, it seemed like VNO is starting to decline. This is a good sign since S&P500 also broke below 1000 in the first half hour with some big negative TICK (\< -800). This is definitely going to be an interesting day.

What enticed me the most in VNO is shown in Figure 2. VNO has been respecting the Fibonacci fan lines from the recent crack of late '08/early '09 very well. So this failed push above it this morning was a good signal for me to go short now (coupled with the market weakness).

Entry: \$54.60

Stop: \$55.5

Target: \$47, but looking at \$43 in the intermediate term (prob need to rollover the puts)

Reward / Risk = 7.6 / 0.9 = 8.4

[caption id="attachment_1655" align="aligncenter" width="500" caption="Vornado Realty Trust"][Vornado Realty Trust][][/caption]

[caption id="attachment_1656" align="aligncenter" width="500" caption="Vornado Realty Trust"][Vornado Realty Trust][][/caption]

[Vornado Realty Trust]: http://traderpau.files.wordpress.com/2009/08/2009-08-05-vno.png [Vornado Realty Trust]: http://traderpau.files.wordpress.com/2009/08/2009-08-05-vno_prop.png

Posted 05 August 2009 in stocks.

VNO: Short Entry Stop $49.70

Here's another paper trade. I've been trying this new strategy a couple of times now, although it has generated 2 entry orders, none were triggered so far (the SCSC trade was from version 1, I'm at version 1.1 now). This is mostly because I've been entering shorts but the market has been chugging upward like a relentless train. It's not that I'm not keeping an open mind, but at this point, I haven't been able to spot a good long trade.

Here are my logic for this play.

​1. We are still in a long term bear market. Although we're definitely in an intermediate up trend at the moment.

​2. Vornado Realty Trust (VNO) is a real estate play. Everyone knows real estate stocks are in a severe bear trend. That's inline with the direction of this play.

​3. VNO is testing the lower boundary of a congestion zone between \$50-\$60.

​4. VNO's weekly indicators look bearish. And its daily ones look way overbought.

​5. I am entering below its current up channel and below a support at \$49.76.

​6. Reward/Risk of 7.07/1.90 = 3.72

Points 1-5 setup a favourable probability of this trade. Point 6 is the reward/risk.

Entry stop: \$49.70

Exit stop: \$51.60

Target: \$42.63

The target I'm setting is a long term support from December of 2008. It is also above the 25% intermediate term upward channel established from March 2009, the bounce from its low. And it is at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level from its recent run.

Update: My entry was triggered at 9:34 a.m. I have 25 shares of VNO shorted at \$49.70 on paper now.

Update2: VNO almost touched \$52 on Friday May 8, so my position was stopped out. I will probably put on another trade as VNO came back down to below \$50 on Monday today.

[caption id="attachment_1356" align="aligncenter" width="500" caption="Vornado Realty Trust (VNO)"]Vornado Realty Trust
(VNO)[/caption]

[caption id="attachment_1357" align="aligncenter" width="500" caption="Vornado Realty Trust (VNO)"]Vornado Realty Trust
(VNO)[/caption]

Posted 07 May 2009 in stocks.