Day Trading Report Feb 22, 2008: -$690

[][] Horrible day yesterday! I took Will Rahal's prediction of a positive market for the day a little too much to heart and kept entering longs even though the market was diving. I was also thinking that the price would bounce back to the pivot and S1 after breaking it.

I should have noted that the ADX was at 50 and at least wait for a trading range if I were to enter a long. Because with such dramatic drop, the price wouldn't turn on a dime. But even better, I could have entered a short on the initial break below the pivot.

Lessons for the day:

  1. Realize that I'm wrong sooner rather than later
  2. Switch from ER2 to YM after a few losing streak for a smaller position size
  3. Don't have any pre-conceived notion of where the market will head! (not the first time this has cost me)

I'm just \$60 away from my equity limit to exit from day trading. Although I have learned a lot, I still can't produce result consistently. Next week will be a vital test for my near term day trading career.


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Trading Report Feb 12 - 21, 2008: +$146

[][]Last week's trading was uneventful. I recall a couple of times I took a small profit too early instead of waiting for the big runs afterward. It would have been a great week.

On Feb 14, I entered a short on the pre-market. I exited way too early because the price kept dropping for the rest of the day and most of the next. Although I knew the price was going to drop, I underestimated the magnitude of it. TraderFeed wrote an article about that day's market and introduced his method of using the NYSE tick count as another indicator.

I have since added it to my day trading window.


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Reward Risk of Popular Index Futures

                **ER2**    **YM**      **ES**     **EMD**

10min ATR 2.7 32 4 2.6 Daily ATR 26 341 42 25 \$ / point \$100.00 \$5.00 \$50.00 \$100.00 Reward/Risk 9.63 10.66 10.5 9.62

I'm using the intra-day ATR as a risk factor because I'm assuming them as noise. I use 10 min. as the basis because that's about the time period I use. The reward is the max daily swing, which is the daily ATR.

As you can see, the reward/risk is about the same for all the liquid index futures. However, I'm leaning toward YM because of the smaller contract size and it seems more stable lately. I'll watch the markets closely from now on.

Day trading report Feb 11, 2008: No Trade

[][]I watched the market for about an hour last night and then just went to bed. I was too tired and found that I wasn't concentrating. My brain was definitely off already.

I seriously considered entering a long at about the vertical line. Then after watching it for a few bars, the price seems to be stuck in a trading range, so it could go either way. Since I didn't want to wait for long because I almost fell asleep at the table, I decided to not enter a position. It was a good decision because the price would have went below my stop (lowest of past few bars in the trading range) before rising just a 6 index points, and with a lot of struggle too.

For the rest of the day, there were a lot of choppiness and not a lot of big swings. It would have been better to stay off the market because my stops would have been killed.

Although I didn't make any profit for the day, I didn't lose any either. So I think going to bed early last because I wasn't up for it was a wise decision.


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