US Dollar vs. Canadian broke above resistance after FOMC and before G20

In one fell-swoop, USD/CAD gained about 200 pips in mere minutes today (Figure 1) after the FOMC meeting. With the G20 meeting going on this weekend, there's going to be some expected volatility. However, a bright spot in this is that USD/CAD has broken above a trendline as shown in Figure 2. This is a very bullish sign in the intermediate term as I have conjectured that we're still in a long term uptrend for USD/CAD. While the resistance has moved from the initial point of 1.113 down to 1.086 because of the descending trendline, I will not be moving my point of ease-in for the other 50% position. We simply have too much resistance in the near-term between 1.09 and 1.11 to be adding at this point. I am happy holding a 50% position. I will only add the other 50% when the up trend is clear in both short and long terms. Which isn't the case for the short term as we're obviously in a trading range between 1.0700 and 1.1100 for now as shown in Figure 1. Thus, to minimize my risk, I'm split up my stop into two and moved them up. 50% of current position below the support at 1.0872 and the rest at 1.0800. For next week, I will consider adding 25% if we can stay above this long term trendline at 1.0860 (round up to 1.0900). In summary, here's an update of my plan. Entry: 1.06754, 50% position from last week. Stop 1: 1.0872, to book half the profit on this quick run up. Stop 2: 1.0800, in case it turns ugly this weekend. Target: 1.15, unchanged from Figure 2. Update Sept 25: USD/CAD retraced to 1.0868 overnight and then continued it's ascend to 1.0976 as of this writing. My stop 1 was triggered at 1.0872 (+197 pips). I still have half the units left. I have moved my last stop up to 1.0821 for the weekend. Hopefully it will hold and then I can look to add more next week after the G20 meeting.

[caption id="" align="aligncenter" width="580" caption="USD/CAD 60-minute"][USD/CAD 60-minute]USD/CAD 60-minute[/caption] [caption id="" align="aligncenter" width="580" caption="USD/CAD daily"][USD/CAD]USD/CAD[/caption]